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Last summer will go down as one of the best for many of the English public. The World Cup was watched in scorching heats across the nation before Love Island hit the televisions every night, with Wimbledon airing simultaneously, and this summer we get four days to relive some of that magic.
England are competing in the first ever Nations League finals this evening, facing the Netherlands in a semi-final clash, with the winner due to meet Portugal in the final to challenge the hosts for the inaugural honour.
Both England and the Netherlands are rejuvenated sides in recent years, enjoying young blood and adding a new energy and identity to the national side. England’s wild ride to the World Cup semi-finals got the nation excited about Gareth Southgate’s men once again, and Ronald Koeman has taken charge of the Oranje in time for some of the country’s finest talents to blossom under his guidance.
So what can we expect?
What history tells us
In the last ten meetings, the fixture has favoured the Dutch, but only slightly. Despite winning four of the last ten encounters, there hasn’t been more than one goal between the two sides since 2001, when Holland beat England 2-0 – there’s been seven encounters since then, four of them ending in draws.
Clean sheets between these two come at a premium as well, though both sides, who in recent years haven’t boasted the best defences, will enter this tournament with back-lines that could match the best in Europe, with Ronald Koeman possessing the powers of European champion Virgil van Dijk and Ajax captain Matthijs de Ligt, and Gareth Southgate having Premier League winner John Stones and England favourite Harry Maguire.
Despite Southgate enjoying his role as manager a lot longer than Koeman, and boasting a much higher win percentage of 62% to the Dutchman’s 42%, they both average similar goals-per-game records, with England’s at 1.93 per game and Holland’s at 1.83 – so the defences could be key to determining where this tie will go.
Key Battle
If you want an example of how to nullify the attacking threat of a side who like to play the ball on the ground with short, intricate passes, look no further than Jurgen Klopp and Jordan Henderson.
The Liverpool captain was pivotal to the Reds’ Champions League final victory against Tottenham Hotspur, spending the 90 minutes completely disrupting the opposition midfield, causing havoc and breaking any rhythm and flow. Harry Winks, the man charged with receiving the ball from the centre-backs and acting as the heartbeat of the side, completely failed to have any impact on the game thanks to Henderson’s pestering nature.
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This role is one the ex-Sunderland man has grown accustomed to, but unfortunately for England, the midfielder is set to start on the bench against the Dutch. In his absence, Ross Barkley must step up for the Three Lions.
When assessing the opposition, in particular Frenkie De Jong, it’s fascinating how often he’s dispossessed. For all his ability on the ball, 27 times across the whole Eredivisie season is a high tally for a man of his talent, and this must be exposed by England.
De Jong’s natural game involves receiving ball from deep, but looking at his incredible tally of 45 key passes throughout the season, he’s clearly dangerous when it comes to shifting play into the final third, so there’s no question he’s the man to disrupt when they two sides meet – even more so than the ever improving talisman of Memphis Depay.
Barkley starting will have its positives without a doubt. The midfielder may have to adapt his role and emulate the Liverpool captain a bit more than his natural game would otherwise dictate, but the Chelsea man does possess more flair and quality in the final third.
Essentially, while he may not be as gifted at winning the ball as Henderson, he’s certainly more efficient with it when he does, shown by his Premier League stats: three goals to Henderson’s one, five assists to Henderson’s three, and even his 22 key passes to the Liverpool man’s 15.
If Barkley can defuse the Ajax man’s natural threat on the press in the same way Henderson did against Harry Winks in Madrid, then England have a very good chance of slowing the Netherlands side altogether and cutting the supply to their very talented forward line.
Team News
Southgate decided to cut Winks, Kieran Trippier, Nathan Redmond and James Ward-Prowse from the preliminary squads, while Harry Kane is set to start on the bench after returning to competitive action in Saturday’s European showpiece.
We expect Callum Wilson to replace Tottenham’s talisman in a like-for-like change, with Raheem Sterling and Marcus Rashford deployed either side of him in a potentially deadly front-three.
Koeman has a selection headache himself having played a back three on occasion, especially with Daley Blind playing so well in a partnership with De Ligt at club level.
However, he’s expected to start with a back four and bring together the most talked about defensive partnership in world football to face Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling and Marcus Rashford.